Posts Tagged ‘odds’

Mostly About Suited Connectors

Thursday, December 11th, 2008

Hello,

I heard once from a certain guy that when you have suited connectors such as 45s and the like, the best thing to do is to limp in with many callers, flop something big or fold. Is this true?

Also, if I were to flop stuff like A23 rainbow, how can I lose eventually? Another thing, when the flush hits and you have a 5-high flush, how can you bet your flush? Well, on my part, with 1-3 players I will bet and then just hope to get rid of any draws. However, with 6-7 players, I am not comfortable with flushes that are low.

Finally, how safe is a 5-high flush against many players? I badly need clarity on this.

Thanks in advance.

Clark
Clark,

Playing low suited connectors are usually a losing proposition. The odds that someone has a higher flush will increase when you play against multiple players. This makes playing suited connectors an overall losing proposition.

If you flop A-2-3 rainbow with a 4-5, the only way you will lose is runner-runner full house or flush. However, this is a near miracle flop and not a valid reason to play 4-5.

I Was Not the Underdog!

Wednesday, December 10th, 2008

Hello there!

Just last week, I joined a 6 man event. I believe we started with 10K, this was in chips. Well, the initial blinds were 100/200.

At certain point, I was dealt Akd, this was from the button. Later on, two players limped in. I then decided to raise to $1000, it was five times the BB. Then, BB called my bet while the other players folded. Flop came and brought Qd, Jd, 6c. I then flopped a straight, flush, and royal draws.

Eventually, my opponent placed a $4000 bet and for that he then had half his chips in the pot. I realized I’ve made a mistake on reading what he held then.

Later part and I started counting my outs, 9 for the flush, 3 other 10s for the straight, and 3 more for the Ace I guess. I was bothered then as I should have only given myself 12 total outs and not 15.

If you were on my shoes then, facing a $4000 bet, what will you do next? Well, I decided to call. However, in the end, I realized it was a big mistake. My last thought was to fold but I was not so sure about it.

Would you have folded to the flop bet or gone all in, if you were me?

By the way, of course my opponent showed his hand and was actually pocket jacks, had trip jacks. Thinking of it, I was not the underdog. I feel really bad now. Any advice?

Thanks in advance!

Bode
Bode,

You needed to call 4,000 into a 6300 pot. You had 60% to hit your hand assuming you had 15 outs and you had no reason to assume otherwise. While it was true that you had 12, you had no reason of knowing this. You call would have been 63% of the pot. Technically you did not have pot odds. However, you did have implied odds, which means that if you hit, chances are you will get all his chips.

I think your call on the flop was a decent call. I would not have necessarily pushed here, but calling is not bad. As you said, you had a straight flush draw. And aces may have won. Of course we know now they would not have.

I would have called.

About My Mistake

Wednesday, December 10th, 2008

Hey there!

In a tourney with a thousand of players, I had 12K in chips and blinds were up at 200/400. Being the first one to act, I called. By the way I had AQ then. Quite disturbing, nobody raised. There were four players keenly observing who saw the flop actually.

Flop then came and was Jd Kd Kc. Other two players checked while the other one placed 800 bet. Except from me, everyone else’s folded. Because I felt like gambling more, I called and then hit the 10 of spades thus giving me a straight. One of the other players then placed 1600 bet and then I raised to 4K. Later, he called.

River then came and was 9. He then opted to check. Afterwards, I decided to bet 1600 and so he went all in. Then I called, but I discovered he had a full house, Kings over nines and so I was busted out.

Now, I’m curious if after the turn I should have decided to go all in, considering he might not actually call pre flop with K J, and he may have with K 10. What do you think? Also, I think it was so foolish of me, though I knew he had a K, I still gave him another card that may complete his full house. However, I also thought that maybe it was not foolishness, I was just unlucky perhaps. The result would have been the same if he called all in on the turn with K9 back then.

But still I was thinking, where did I went wrong? At what point? At not raising pre flop? Or else calling his 800 bet after the flop and drawing to a hand against a tall stack?

Hope to hear from you soon.

Thank you very much!

Lockett Zubak
Lockett,

You were in early position with A-Q. That is not necessarily a raising hand. Some do, I tend not to unless I haven’t played in a bit. On the flop, you had a gutshot straight. You really did not have proper odds to draw to the straight, but you did and hit.

After the flop, I don’t think you opponent is going to fold. He flopped a set. Since you didn’t raise, he has no reason to put you on a king, and even if he did, I still doubt he would fold.

I think that after the flop, you just got unlucky. You sucked out on the turn, and he resucked out on the river.